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OCTOBER 15,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

GOP ROMPS IN PENNSYLVANIA – New polling in Pennsylvania by PPP, generally regarded as a tilting-Democratic pollster, shows every major GOP presidential candidate except Jeb Bush beating Hillary Clinton in the general.  Trump is up 2, Carson 4, Carly 1, Rubio 3.  Clinton only beats Bush, by 5.  But no candidate reaches the 50 percent mark.  Many are undecided.  Pennsylvania usually goes Democratic, so these early numbers can't be encouraging to the Democrats.

DEM INFIGHTING – The media likes to play up infighting within the GOP, but the Dems are having their own battles.  There are charges flying that Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, has been playing the dictator and that she is just a front operator for Hillary Clinton.  From The Hill:   A vice chair of the Democratic National Committee says the chairwoman, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), did not consult others about the party's primary debate schedule as she claims and is questioning her leadership.  R.T. Rybak, a former mayor of Minneapolis, told The New York Times on Thursday that Wasserman Schultz had made statements that were "flat out not true."  “This is not a back-and-forth between a chair and a vice chair,” he said, according to the Times.  “This is a chair of the Democratic Party wrongly stating that she consulted with all of the party officers. I was not consulted. I know that [Rep.] Tulsi Gabbard [D-Hawaii] was not consulted. And this is becoming about much more than debates.” Rybak's comments are the latest salvo in an internal party fight over the number of presidential primary debates.  Let 'em fight over the wreckage that Barack Obama is leaving.

MORE SCANDAL FOR HILLARY – From Fox:   A watchdog group is asking the Internal Revenue Service to investigate whether the Clinton Foundation broke federal law by making payments to Hillary Clinton's failed 2008 presidential campaign.  Matthew Whitaker, executive director of the Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust, pressed the IRS on whether the nearly $350,000 the Clinton Foundation paid to rent Clinton's email list after she failed to secure the Democratic nomination was above "fair market value," which is the benchmark used to determine whether such payments constitute veiled donations rather than typical transactions.   The Clinton Foundation made a payment of $274,297 to the campaign in Feb. 2009 and another payment of $75,000 in March of that year, Federal Election Commission filings show.  As an American, I'm sickened by these constant attacks on our former first lady.  I have personally seen her warmth, integrity, and graciousness.  I use a large telescope for that purpose.

October 15,  2015     Permalink

THE DEM DEBATE – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 11:25 A.M. ET:  Karl Rove nails the reality of Hillary Clinton's famous victory in Tuesday's Democratic debate.  From The Wall Street Journal:

The Democratic debate Tuesday revealed the best thing that Hillary Clinton has going for her: the weakness of her challengers.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders came off as an elderly, dyspeptic Bilbo Baggins attending a British Labour Party meeting. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley sounded like an overly earnest, slightly too intense 1950s ad man making a bad pitch. Former Rhode Island Gov.Lincoln Chafee was as hapless as a puppy stranded in a hurricane. And former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, probably sensing how inconsequential he is, was angry all night. It’s hard to believe this crew will draw many viewers for future debates.

Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, reminded the crowd that she is a good debater who bested then-Sen. Barack Obama in most of their 2008 matchups. She was knowledgeable, in command and much less mechanical than usual. Team Clinton was right to be elated with her performance.

There is little doubt now that Mrs. Clinton will be her party’s nominee, barring an indictment or similar dramatic event. Still, Mrs. Clinton’s managers shouldn’t kid themselves: Her intraparty competition is pitiful, and her challenges in the general election remain enormous.

It is striking how far left the Democratic Party—including Mrs. Clinton—has moved. Candidates spent the debate trying to outdo one another on gun control, climate change and busting up Wall Street.

One example: When asked to state America’s greatest national-security threat, Mr. Sanders did not say Islamic State, which controls much of Syria, Iraq and Iran. He did not say Russia, entrenched in Ukraine and emerging as a dominant power in the Middle East, or even China, threatening its neighbors in the west Pacific.

He named climate change. One can imagine President Sanders ordering special forces to the headquarters of Exxon, Shell and Chevron to haul off oilmen to re-education camps cooled and heated by renewable energy.

COMMENT:  Very well said.  But Hillary will have one enormous advantage in the general election – press bias, the same force that mightily helped put Barack Obama in the White House.  Countering that must be a major factor in Republican planning, and I think it will be.

October 15, 2015       Permalink

PLANNED PARENTHOOD – AT 10:31 A.M. ET:   Planned Parenthood, considered the holy of holies in the abortion movement, has taken some hits recently in the form of secretly recorded videos exposing the organization's alleged sale of fetal body parts.   Andrew Malcolm at IBD reports on the effect on the organization's once pristine reputation:

Despite a series of shocking, secretly-recorded videos of Planned Parenthood officers discussing sale of body parts from aborted babies, the American public still thinks favorably of the organization.

The new Gallup Poll found that 59% of 1,015 adults surveyed this month still have a positive overall opinion about the organization.

This would seem to suggest that, entering a volatile presidential election year, politicians should tread carefully when considering involvement in the emotional public and congressional debate over defunding Planned Parenthood of the $548 million in taxpayer money it's awarded annually.

IBD's editorial board examined the issues at play here amid suggestions that media coverage of the grisly videos and the nonchalant luncheon discussion of harvesting infant body parts for sale was limited for ideological reasons.

However, the survey also found that PP's 59% favorable rating is actually down significantly from the 81% favorables it held in 1993, the last time that Gallup polled this question.

Meanwhile, the group's overall very unfavorable rating has jumped from 5% in 1993 to 23% this month.

COMMENT:  Planned Parenthood's image is certainly being eroded, but only a limited number of viewers saw those videos.  If more had seen them, the numbers would be worse.

Coverage of the videos by the media was disgraceful, with only Fox giving them the attention they deserved.

October 15, 2015       Permalink 

THE FIELD MARSHAL DECIDES – AT 9:28 A.M. ET:  Whoops.  Guess Plan A didn't work out.  Field Marshal Obama, having been so completely successful in all his other strategic planning, has now decided to reverse a decision.  I am left breathless by the brilliance of his thinking.  From Fox: 

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama will keep 5,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan when he leaves office in 2017, according to senior administration officials, casting aside his promise to end the war on his watch and instead ensuring he hands the conflict off to his successor.

Obama had originally planned to pull out all but a small, embassy-based U.S. military presence by the end of next year, a timeline coinciding with the final weeks of his presidency. But military leaders argued for months that the Afghans needed additional assistance and support from the U.S. to beat back a resurgent Taliban and hold onto gains made over the last 14 years of American bloodshed and billions of dollars in aid.

The president was to announce the changes Thursday morning from the White House. Officials said he would outline plans to maintain the current force of 9,800 troops in Afghanistan through most of next year, then draw down to 5,500 troops in 2017, at a pace still to be determined by commanders.

COMMENT:  Yeah, the next president will have to pick up the job not done by Obama.  Obama never seems to have a real fix on strategy.  He doesn't seem interested.  He's probably trying to avoid a total collapse of our position in Afghanistan so he won't be blamed, which is what it's always about.

October 15, 2015       Permalink

NOT ENCOURAGING – AT 8:55 A.M. ET:  A few weeks ago a clueless Donald Trump was saying we should allow Russia to do our job for us by knocking out ISIS in Syria.  Now he's saying that he isn't convinced pro-Russian separatists took down a Malaysian airliner, despite newly released evidence that they did.  Trump is hardly coming off as a credible voice in foreign policy.  When you start siding with Russia...  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) Donald Trump doesn't believe there is enough evidence to blame pro-Russian separatists for last year's downing of a commercial airliner over Ukraine -- despite the fact that the U.S. intelligence community believes "with confidence" that pro-Russian separatists shot it down.

Trump was asked on MSNBC Wednesday about a new report from Dutch investigators that Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down by a Russian-made rocket and warhead -- and asked what he would do as president to hold Russia accountable.

"They say it wasn't them," he replied. "It may have been their weapon, but they didn't use it, they didn't fire it, they even said the other side fired it to blame them. I mean to be honest with you, you'll probably never know for sure."

Trump later said the culprit was "probably" Russia and pro-Russian fighters, but he said the U.S. needs to focus on its own problems right now and not "get involved" in overseas conflicts, even one as "horrible" as this.

"I think it is horrible," Trump said of the incident. "But they're saying it wasn't them. The other side says it is them. And we're going to go through that arguing for probably for 50 years and nobody is ever going to know. Probably was Russia."

COMMENT:  Gee, Donald, thanks for such a sophisticated analysis.  And thanks for undercutting the Dutch investigators, who have a solid reputation. 

All Donald had to do was say that he wouldn't comment until he'd studied the matter.  That's what experienced pros do. 

Trump appears to have stalled in the polls, with Carson coming up behind him. 

The next debate is October 28th, and maybe we'll be able to make further judgments.  But there will still be too many Republican candidates on the stage, and that is causing severe damage to the process.  The Democratic debate had four contenders, producing far more useful focus on each individual.

October 15,  2015     Permalink

OCTOBER 14,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:48 P.M. ET: 

A WARNING – From Financial Times:  Poor data on Wednesday suggested that the US consumer might finally be losing the will to shop, with overall sales growth below forecasts and sales, excluding cars and petrol, flat.  It is risky to focus on a single month’s figures — even when previous data were revised down — but the figures come as investors ask a fundamental question: do developed countries face good deflation or bad deflation?   We have lived the illusion that the American economy is strong.  It is not.  Look around you and see if there is great confidence.  You only see confidence in the Washington real-estate market because government has expanded, and there are signs of weakness there as well.

PUTIN SPEAKS – From Powerline:  Vladimir Putin once again showed his deep respect for Barack Obama, as he complained about the incompetence of U.S. policy in Syria:  “Now, we often hear that our pilots are striking the wrong targets, not IS,” Putin said at an investment forum in Moscow explaining that Russia had asked Washington to provide a list of targets.  But Washington declined.  “‘No, we are not ready for this’ was the answer,” Putin quoted them as saying. “Then we thought again and asked another question: then tell us where we should not strike. No answer too,” he said, adding: “That is not a joke. I did not make this up.”
“How is it possible to work together?” he asked. “I think some of our partners simply have mush for brains, they do not have a clear understanding of what really happens in the country and what goals they are seeking to achieve.”  No, they don't have mush for brains.  They simply have brains that were poorly trained in America's elite universities.

MAJOR EDUCATION VICTORY – From Fox:   Children in one Connecticut town almost found themselves all dressed up for Halloween with no place to go, after the district banned parades for fear they would exclude kids who didn't want to take part in the celebration.  However, officials from Milford Public Schools decided on Monday to reinstate parades and other Halloween activities at elementary schools in the district after parents protested the original decision.  “The principals and I are about educating our children," read a letter from School Superintendent Elizabeth Feser sent to parents Monday afternoon."With this in mind, knowing that the issue of Halloween is detracting from what we are truly about, and our time with our children around teaching and learning is most important, we have decided to reverse our decision.”  The original decision by Milford school officials to ban all Halloween parades at the elementary schools across the district had parents moaning, according to the Connecticut Post.  “I think it’s crazy,” Victoria Johannsen, the mother of a third-grader, told the newspaper. “I don’t understand why other avenues weren’t pursued.”  What is frightening is that teachers are often educated in profoundly left-wing "schools of education," where they learn to think like little lefties.  Fortunately, some parents are pushing back.

October 14, 2015       Permalink

FIRST AUDIENCE MEASURE FOR DEM DEBATE – AT 11:20 A.M. ET:   First indications are that the size of the CNN audience for last night's Democratic debate was larger than anticipated, but probably well below the audience for the first GOP debate.  From money.cnn.com:

Final ratings won't come in until later in the day. But preliminary Nielsen ratings indicate that CNN's Tuesday night debate was the highest-rated Democratic debate ever.

The 9 p.m. and 10 p.m. hours averaged an 11.2 household rating, meaning that 11% of all American homes with TVs were tuned in.

The previous Democratic debate record was set in 2008, when Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama squared off in prime time on ABC. That debate had an 8.9 household rating and 10.7 million total viewers.

The total viewer number for Tuesday's matchup will be released on Wednesday afternoon. It will be much lower than both recent Republican debates, but the early data suggests there was still a surprising surge of interest in Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb's first time together on stage.

Heading into Tuesday night, there was unanimous agreement that the total audience would be lower than the 25 million who tuned in for Fox's Republican debate on August 6. That debate -- fueled by Donald Trump -- shattered all previous primary debate records.

COMMENT:  Or, maybe viewers find the Republicans much more interesting. 

October 14, 2015       Permalink

CARSON CLOSING – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  Despite a number of gaffes, Ben Carson is closing on Donald Trump.   From The Hill:

Ben Carson is getting close to ending Donald Trump’s reign atop the GOP polls, climbing to within 1 point of the business mogul and reality TV star in a new survey.

According to a Fox News poll released on Tuesday, Trump remains in the lead in the race for the party's nomination, with 24 percent support nationally, but Carson is a close behind at 23 percent.

Carson has been in second place behind only Trump in the last three Fox News polls, but has been gaining steadily.

Trump led Carson 26 percent to 18 percent in the same poll from late September, and 25 percent to 12 percent in the same poll from August.

Trump has led in every major poll since the middle of July.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is in third place with 10 percent support in the Fox News poll, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) at 9 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 8 percent.

Carly Fiorina and Mike Huckabee each took 5 percent support in the survey.  That’s a drop for Fiorina, who was at 9 percent in the previous Fox survey taken shortly after the last Republican presidential debate.

COMMENT:  If Trump can be knocked out of first place, I don't think he'd get back in.  His negatives are simply too high.  He doesn't have much affection to draw on.

But then what?  Carson may be gaining popularity, but he continuously makes controversial statements, or statements that sound irrational.  So far those incidents haven't stopped his momentum, but if he gains the lead he'll be looked at much more closely. 

I still feel that Rubio is the one to watch.  A Hispanic from the key state of Florida.  Dynamic, superbly informed, attractive, taking positions that are nationally popular.  I think the next month will decide.  If Rubio gets some traction, he'll start to move.  If he doesn't, he may fade back into the pack.

October 14, 2015       Permalink

WHO WON? – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  The general conventional wisdom among pundits is that Hillary Clinton won last night's debate simply by being assertive and confident.  But not everyone agrees.  A focus group put together by Frank Luntz – we mentioned this last night – believed that Sanders won, and by quite a bit.  From Fox:

During a live post-debate "Kelly File," Frank Luntz talked to a focus group of voters from the key swing state of Florida.

The participants agreed overwhelmingly that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders was the big winner at the first Democratic debate.

Words that the group used to describe Sanders included strong, straightforward, confident, sincere, smart and direct.

As for the moment that generated the most positive reaction during the debate, participants agreed it was when Sanders addressed Hillary Clinton's email scandal.

"The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails!" Sanders said. "Enough of the emails. Let's talk about the real issues facing America."

COMMENT:  A young person's group at the University of Maryland also believed Sanders had won.  We'll get more precise polling in the coming days.  I wouldn't be shocked if the voters defy the pundits once again.

October 14, 2015       Permalink

DISGRACEFUL – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  I want to report an incident that occurred last night in the auditorium where the Democratic debate was being held.  And journalists sometimes wonder why their credibility has been so badly dented.  From Gateway Pundit: 

Reporters in the press room at the Democratic Party presidential debate held in Las Vegas Tuesday night exploded in cheers after Sen. Bernie Sanders emphatically called for the media to stop reporting on the Hillary Clinton email controversy.

Two reporters in the press room, Hunter Walker of Yahoo News and Dave Rubin of Ora TV posted to Twitter the reaction of their fellow reporters.

The entire press room just exploded when Bernie said that about Hillary's emails. #DemDebate

— Dave Rubin (@RubinReport) October 14, 2015

“The entire press room just exploded when Bernie said that about Hillary’s emails. #DemDebate”

Audible clapping and laughter in the press filing room after Bernie Sanders' "enough of the emails moment."

— Hunter Walker (@hunterw) October 14, 2015

COMMENT:  That is so grossly unprofessional, although it's happened before.  It's bad enough to be biased.  It worse to show off your bias.  I guess some of these "journalists" think theirs is the only opinion worthy of consideration.

Self-indulgent and tacky.

October 14,  2015     Permalink